Why Strong Emotions Make Us Ignore the Odds
We do not make decisions the same way in every situation. When a decision feels relatively routine—such as the possibility of losing money—we are more likely to consider both what might happen and how likely it is to happen. But when fear or hope is intense, as with illness or possible treatment side effects, emotion can overshadow probability.
One study found that people may choose differently between nearly identical options simply because one of them evokes a stronger emotional response.
When we are calm, we tend to ask two questions: What could happen, and how likely is it? When emotions run high, however, we may focus almost entirely on the outcome we fear or desire and lose sight of how likely it actually is.
The takeaway is simple: the stronger the emotion, the easier it becomes to overestimate a risk or a benefit. Before making an important decision, do not ask only, "What am I afraid of?" or "What am I hoping for?" Also ask, "How likely is this to happen?"
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